Who Will Win the 2024 Presidential Election?

Tracking the Polls and Predictions

Interactive Electoral Map

Click on the interactive map (www.270towin.com) to create your own 2024 election forecast and see how different scenarios could play out.

Polling Accuracy

Polls can be inaccurate, as we saw in the 2016 election. However, Biden's lead in the polls is larger than Trump's was in 2016, so it's less likely that the polls will be wrong again.

538's Predictions

538, a website that uses polling, economic, and demographic data to predict election outcomes, gives Trump a 2 in 5 chance of winning the 2024 election. This is a significant improvement from his chances in 2020, when he was given only a 1 in 4 chance of winning.

Factors that Could Affect the Outcome

The Economy

The state of the economy is always a major factor in presidential elections. If the economy is doing well, the incumbent president is more likely to be re-elected. If the economy is struggling, the challenger is more likely to win.

Trump's Popularity

Trump remains a popular figure among Republicans, but he is also a polarizing figure. His approval ratings have been consistently low throughout his presidency, and he lost the popular vote in 2016 and 2020. If Trump is the Republican nominee in 2024, his popularity will be a major factor in determining the outcome of the election.

Biden's Approval Ratings

Biden's approval ratings have been declining in recent months. If his approval ratings continue to fall, it could hurt his chances of re-election in 2024.